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With a random sample of 1,000 people, what's the typical margin of error for a poll?

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about 10,000

About how many respondents would a poll need to shrink its margin of error down to plus/minus 1%?

Cutting the margin of error to a third requires roughly a tenfold increase in sample size.

Source: Polling methodology research (via Wikipedia) (2020) en.wikipedia.org

1824

Around what year is the earliest known opinion poll thought to have occurred, ahead of a U.S. presidential election?

Newspapers reported informal voter-preference tallies showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams.

Source: Polling history research (via Wikipedia) (2020) en.wikipedia.org

Thomas Dewey (Truman won)

In the famous 1948 U.S. election polling failure, which candidate did polls wrongly predict would win?

This is the origin of the famous 'Dewey Defeats Truman' newspaper headline, printed before all votes were counted.

Source: Polling history research (via Wikipedia) (2020) en.wikipedia.org

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Each question asks you to guess a real number about surveys, polling and public-opinion research. After you answer you see how everyone else guessed, then the real figure and where it comes from.

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Four stats and one opinion poll. A correct guess earns 100 points plus up to 50 for speed, with a combo bonus for answers in a row. The range next to the right answer earns 40. Opinion polls earn 25 for having your say, and nailing every stat adds 150.

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